Why Windows 8 might Kill Microsoft
By Pcunix
I hope you didn't erupt into laughter and spill coffee all over your keyboard when you read my title. I certainly hope you didn't snort hot liquid out your nostrils, either.
I realize this might sound preposterous. Multi, multi billion dollar Microsoft go out of business? Microsoft, with 92% operating system market share? THAT Microsoft? Some link bait, right?
Yeah, we've all had a good laugh and now I should take that back and say I didn't mean it and next time you'll be sure to put your coffee down before visiting any of my pages again.
Except I'm not going to take it back. I'm deadly serious.
Some people might say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one.. John Lennon was talking about world peace and the end of religion. You might be easily forgiven if you assessed Microsoft's chances of going belly up as only slightly more likely than what that song imagined. Heck, you might be forgiven for thinking it's even less likely!
But I am serious, and I am not the only one. Try this: Google (or Bing, for now anyway) "Will Windows 8 kill Microsoft" in quotes. I got a bit over 31,000 results. This is a serious matter.
Why? Why do I and quite a few others see Windows 8 as dangerous?
One simple sentence really sums it up: Microsoft itself sees Windows 8 as its only hope.
The Cloud and the darn tablets
Cloud computing has Microsoft sweating bullets. That, and tablets. The two together are very scary stuff if you are a Microsoft executive.
Google Docs is a good example of cloud computing and it is one that is aimed square at Microsoft's bread and butter: Microsoft Office. As I write this, Google and Microsoft are both bidding on a contract with IBM. If Google wins that, Microsoft loses out on a lot of Office license sales.
But even if Google doesn't win this time, IBM did consider their bid. That means that Google could win next time and it also means that other companies will at least think about going with Google rather than Microsoft.
That's bad enough, but it gets worse. If you are using Google Docs, why would you need a Microsoft operating system? You don't - Mac or Linux will do just fine. Microsoft is already slowly losing ground to Linux in the business server space and losing home desktops to Apple. Losing the Office applications market would only accelerate that trend.
Desktops are losing out to tablets and smart phones, too. Microsoft killed its own tablet, providing an excellent example of how big companies can eat their own young. But that doesn't mean Microsoft doesn't see the threat. Many home users are discovering that their smart phone and a tablet are all they really need. It's not just home users: I know of businesses where sales people get iPads, not desktop computers. Tablets are a big threat to Microsoft.
Windows 8 is a tablet operating system. Well, that's silly, because Microsoft doesn't make a tablet, but it's easy to see that its purpose is strongly oriented toward tablets.
Look at this screen shot. That's Windows 8 running on my Mac under Parallels virtualization.
Those tiles just begged to be swiped. Not only that, but many of them are updating themselves from the Cloud. Microsoft sees the future and Windows 8 is their way to get there.
There are just a few teeny, weeny problems that could get in the way..
No Microsoft Tablet
They killed that, remember? But so what? There's no "Microsoft" computer - other people build the hardware and Microsoft sells them the operating system.
Well, except that other folks are selling tablets now. Apple is selling millions of iPads every month. Dozens of other folks are selling Android tablets and Amazon is introducing a very low priced tablet itself. There are a very few tablets running Windows now, but they represent less than 5% of tablet sales.
Microsoft is very late to market.
Do you want that interface on your desktop?
Not everyone is going to abandon their keyboards and 27 inch screens. Not everyone is going to want to give up their mouse and smear their fingers across a big touch screen. Many people like things just as they are, thank you anyway.
Those people will hate Windows 8.
Developers may hate it more
You see, Windows 8 developers have been told that their years of hard gained knowledge in Windows development is about to go away. The skills they'll need for Windows 8 are HTML5 and JavaScript.
Coincidentally, those are handy skills for iPad and Android and Kindle.. which are already selling and already have millions of users. So, you are a developer and all your old skills just got tossed out. Pull in that belt buckle and learn the new ways.. for what? For Windows 8? More likely that many will just move to where the money already is.
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At the end of the day
Sure, Microsoft might pull this off. Obviously they think they can, and maybe they really are "too big to fail". It's also obvious that they really have not much choice - they need a piece of the mobile market and they aren't going to get it with Windows 7.
But is it really necessary to make desktops and tablets identical? Apple hasn't done that - they do seem to be moving in that direction with Lion, but Lion is distinctly different from IOS 5 (that's what runs their iPads and iPhones).
Maybe seeing Apple hint about merging IOS and Lion is what makes Microsoft think they need to get in the first punch and beat Apple at their own game? If so, I wonder if those Apple hints will turn out to be the most clever thing Apple has ever done. Maybe they want Microsoft to ruin its desktop and let Apple be poised to sell to millions of disgusted ex-Microsoft owners?
I don't know. I do know that Windows 8 is a big risk and I bet Microsoft knows it too.
Update
Ray Ozzie was one of the top people at Microsodt.
His recent take on Windows 8 is very telling:
"In any industry, if people look at their own needs, and look at the products and say, 'I understand why I had it then, and I want something different', they will not have as good a future. It's too soon to tell."
Comments
Very interesting. I would hate to type on a tablet.
You can use an external keyboard.. But the onscreen is fine for casual use.
Tony, it's not the keyboard. I don't mind typing on the keyboard. It' that I touch type and I don't want to have to lean over the screen. Unless, of course, I put the tablet on its side and type on the keyboard and see what I type that way.
A bit technical for me... All I know from personal experience is that all my friends who use Mac say that it is far superior to Windows and strongly recommend I switch over to a Mac when I buy my next computer.
I would recommend that also.
EXTREMELY interesting. I'd assumed from the moniker that you knew your stuff - and I'm so ignorant that even if you don't, you'll likely always have me fooled.
I ....don't care about all those silly pocket gadgets. I want a phone to be a phone. I don't want a computer in my pocket - I want speakers and a big monitor hooked to my computer, and I like a mouse, and a keyboard in my lap!
There are rumors now that they may ONLY put this on tablets. If true, they got a whole bunch smarter suddenly.
I sure hope so. I'm a dedicated....tower man.
I've got a nice XP pro svc pack III...yada yada system....but I want one with one monster hard drive..or two, so that I can ....give unbuntu, or something like that a try. :-D
Sometimes you just can't improve on a good thing. That's why I still like XP. Although Win 7 is better than Vista.
And XP is much more prone to malware..
Sorry to disapoint you but tais article is not correct....you are making mistakes on market segmentation and man.other stuff....dont have thé time to explain all....also please please please....point the ressources rom where pop out your points of view....otherwise it does not worth anything
You are not disappointing me, but i suspect you have an unrealistic bias.
It seems that Microsoft may be well aware of the danger. There are rumors that Win 8 will only be for tablets and the like, not for desktops and servers.
We'll see.
WEll,ur all wrong regarding many things here. First of all,m not a M$ advocate.m a linux user and consultant,so i need to keep tab on all things related to Operating systems. That said,development is necessary. Now, MS is just late in the market space of tablets. It doesn't mean they will loose,it just means,they have to take more efforts to get everything running smoothly. There is a good reason they purchased skype,they have office 365/sharepoint,and now a tablet interface. Temme,what more do business people will look for? Also,dont forget windows phone,and u can sync every data from ur desktop to windows phone and windows tablet. This is like a package deal. And people who dont want this interface can switch to normal windows 7 interface with a click of a button. HTML5 and JS are just needed for these UI apps.i dont remember what they are called. C sharp is there,and it remains. Its not abandoned. Apple doesnt need HTML or JS,it needs objective C,which is a difference form of C programming language. Android needs java,and xml for storage,please dont confuse java script and java,both are different beasts. Kindly research a bit more before writing pages. No offense intended. Regards, Akshay Sulakhe :-)
No offense taken. You haven't said anything that has any meaning, so why should I take offense?
I would so much stress on the words research,u wont believe it.... :-) and i code android too..my frends work in IOS...seriously,research....again,no offense.. :-)
No offense taken. No respect given either :-)
The metro UI is not the best interface and the classic desktop does not have the full Windows 7 experience
Of course it doesn't. Mr. "Research" is talking through his hat.
So yeah. I used the dev preview from when it launched to about 3 days ago. It is going to ruin a power users day for like a whole minute from when they have to click on the desktop button to get to the desktop. Everybody else will be okay with the tablet home screen. If it really bugs you a simple edit can turn on windows 7. so please chillax. I swapped back to xp for a minute to play through the 2010 AVP and plan to go back to win 8 as soon as I am done.
No, "everybody else" will not be ok and no, you can't just "turn on" Windows 7".
We software developers have been being told that client/server applications are dying and everything is going "web" for ten years. It hasn't died out yet. As noted, the core languages to write the UI software for many platforms are still alive and well C, Objective C, Java. C# (A Microsoft created language similar to C) is so popular it's ported to Linux with Mono, MonoTouch for the iPhone and iPad, and even MonoDroid. Microsoft has a stripped down version of Office online already which works on desktops and smartphones!
Windows Vista was a miserable failure they learned from and I seriously doubt are dumb enough to make the same mistake twice. Microsoft is good at adapting to survive. They have a little database system called SQL Server and Windows Servers needed to run it. Yes, I'm an MS developer and not ashamed to admit it but that doesn't mean I won't be using one of those platforms listed above someday. I also have asp.net, CSS, and jQuery development skills to fall back on.
Macs have used Intel chips and been able to run Windows for years, either through a VM or a dual boot system. Why? Because even Mac people still need Windows. Windows 7 isn't going anywhere soon it will just be a gradual progression to 8 unless like mentioned it's a failure like Vista and XP stays around for years, Windows 7 could do the same.
Except that it won't stay. Tablets are replacing pc's and if Microsoft can't enter that market, they are done. That's why Win 8 is so critical and they know it.
That's how you underestimate Microsoft. They entered the phone market late and now have at least 12 phones or more available. What makes you think they can't bring tablets into the market?
12 phones that almost nobody owns.
I'm not saying they can't. I'm saying they HAVE to and if they screw it up, it is over for them.
You know what pisses me off? I SAID all that above, but you didn't bother to read it. You just jumped to leave a comment..
You didnt have to say it but its been your insinuation all along My point was tablet/Windows 8 sales alone isn't going to "kill" Microsoft anytime soon.
There are many things about Win8 you either don't know about or aren't mentioning. 1) A Win7 theme which is what I think a previous poster alluded to, not that you could physically switch back to Win7. 2) USB 3.0 support. 3) Windows Store for an app market. 4) Windows to go from a USB stick. 5) Refresh and Reset. 6) Link to a user's Windows Live ID to share settings and files between machines.
Office is already in the cloud but full Office offers more features than Google Docs. Salesmen buying iPads isn't affecting the multitude of power users, corporate users, and gamers that still rely on Windows and that isn't changing anytime soon regardless of Win8's success which is now looking more probable. Certain Linux (which I like BTW) and Mac/IOS users will stay in their denial bubbles as they always have.
Blah, blah. I've used it. Win 7 theme isn't Win 7 - not even close.
Microsoft knows far better than you do how dangerous tablets are to its business. Yes, tablets ARE being used in business and at home and it matters - whether you know it or not.
PcUnix. No offense... you are an idiott. I love Apple. And I like windows. Also meddled with Ubuntu but it wasn't for me. Microsoft isn't going anywhere because of how cheap PCs are. Macs are simply too expensive for games and for the majority of folks. And when i say the majority I speak of people both inside and outside the US,from other countries which are not as wealthy. One thing apple has never been able to do is offer a computer that is AFFORDABLEEEEEE....Their cheapest is a netbook that starts at 999US. Sure the ipad isn't bad but it still is very pricey when u can get a very good fully blown laptop for 400US. Furthermore there are plenty netbooks out there and ultrabooks that are about to release which should run very fast on Windows 8 considering the requirements to run windows 8 are less than windows 7. Microsoft has the majority of the computer market worldwide. That is a fact. Unless Apple drastically drops their prices, chances are Microsoft is here to stay. And the fact that Windows 8 will be able to shift back to the older interface for users like myself who loves desktops is a plus.They are combining both worlds which i for one don't see as a bad thing. If Microsoft were to NOT try something like windows 8, i for one believe it would have been their downfall. They acknowledge tablets, and this is their reply. No I do not work for Microsoft or Apple. I am just lucky enough to own a PC desktop that i built, and an ipad that i had to save up for a very long time to buy. Again i stress that Microsoft has the majority of the market for computers worldwide.
Apple charge a premium for their product. And they have a right to. Because they offer beautiful products. But the fact is the majority of people cant afford an apple product. And as a result, it is that vast majority that would keep Microsoft alive.
I for one think that Microsoft is heading in the right direction.
I've read your article and all the comments and to be honest it appears that you seem biased and have it out for microsoft. You completely dismissed wyoung1977 who made some valid points. It's always a good idea to be objective when writing articles.
All the best.
I apologize for using the word idiot. That was wrong of me. But your attitude to others making valid points and simply pointing out why your article isn't realistic, was uncalled for. And your attitude pissed me off.. They suggested that you do more research. They weren't trying to offend you.
Cheers
Microsoft doesn't ''Have'' to do anything. Even if they didn't come up with windows 8, they would be fine. If they chose to bring a touch interface in windows 9 for instance. They still hold a huge majority and would be just fine. And people aren't going to abandon their Pcs and laptops anytime soon. For engineers who use Autocad. Software like Matlab. CPU intense programs like photoshop and other programs like 3d Studio MAX all require a PC and cannot be done by a tablet.Gamers aren't about to abandon PCs anytime soon. Maybe in the future the PC/laptop/Tablet will merge into one and eventually Tablets will 'replace' Laptops and PCs. But realistically PCs and laptops are here to stay for a long time. And Windows will be their operating system simply because it is easier for the average user to use in comparison to linux and is more available due to price for the general public. It has been around for a long time and the majority is comfortable with windows.
I'm not saying linux is bad. But for the average person who isn't very technical, Linux is a nono. The only reason companies started using linux is due to the fact that it is free and more cost effective but the average person isn't about to convert to linux. And As i have outlined above OSX is available to everyone due to cost which is a pity really.
Apple, Google and Linux may put a dent in Microsoft's profits, but they aren't gonna take them down. At least not anytime soon.
'OSX isn't available due to cost'*
Sigh. Naive people, naive comments.
If you say so. We can argue about this all day. I'm simply saying that your article seems unrealistic. They came back from a disaster such as vista. And windows me was also terrible. They are still around. Windows xp was pretty good and windows 7 is much better than vista. I guess only time will tell whether Microsoft will be ahead of the game this time next year. Ideally apple would drop their prices and everyone would switch to them. But that is but a dream because we all know apple do not cater for the average person. 20 years ago the price of a Mac was 4000us while pcs were selling for half that price around 2000 to 2500us. I understand they are more expensive for a reason. Custom hardware and whatnot. But a 15onch MacBook pro in this time is 1700us when u can get a computer with similar specs for as little as 500us. Sure the computer may not be as smooth as a Mac and as polished wrt to its OS. But it gets the job done. It's really unfortunate because Mac OsX are ahead of the game in terms of stability and Linux may be as well. But the best product doesn't always come out on top. Marketing and pricing is a bigger part of the game. I'm into audio and that is clearly seen with Bose. U can pick any headphones at random within the same price range and they will sound much better than a Bose headphones. But because of their aggressive marketing strategy they remain in the game. They won't even publish the specs of their headphones. A sennheiser hd238 will sound way better than a Bose OE. 60$ vs 179$ . Marketing has a huge role to play in the survival of companies and history has shown us that Microsoft is good at it and indeed adaptable.
Although unrealistic I can see where you are coming from.
In the end time will tell .
Cheers
Chrome OS laptops were a huge fail for Google.
One word. Ultrabook. Windows oriented and they'll seriously cut Apple MacBook Air sales. Don't believe me?
Asus Zenbook UX31 review: Is this the first real PC alternative to the MacBook Air?
http://www.techradar.com/reviews/pc-mac/laptops-po
http://www.expertreviews.co.uk/laptops/1288024/asu
ASUS Zenbook UX31 Review: MacBook Air Killer?
http://www.notebookreview.com/default.asp?newsID=6
Lenovo Ideal IdeaPad
Acer Aspire S3
Toshiba Z830
"with a host of new models rumored to be released at CES 2012 in January"
What y''all fail to understand is that Microsoft recognizes this just as much as I do. That's why they are doing Windows 8 and they know damn well that they can't screw it up.
Now go back and read what I actually wrote and stop leaving dumb comments because from now on I'm deleting those that indicate failure to comprehend the necessity of what they are doing and how serious it is to them.
I think Microsoft might be best suited to make a Windows 8 tablet edition while still keeping a standard edition available.
Many people are very comfortable with the general look and feel of Windows and making such drastic changes may be a big mistake.
Only time will tell!
Interesting speculation related to this: http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/wintel-tablets
Also see this: http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/cut-the-ribbon
Just stumbled on this from your profile and so it's a little late but, I'll put in my 2 cents worth anyway. Whilst I totally agree with you that Microsoft in order to survive will have to enter the tablet and mobile device world with a decisive blow.
However I personally feel that there will always be a place for PC's run by Windows OS's I have tried many and own a MAC and a PC. I do not think that windows have a chance of competing with Apple in the tablet market especially looking at the pricing point suggested in the article you have linked too.
I feel (and bare in mind it is just a personal opinion) that desktops and laptops will have a place in businesses for a long time. Whilst home users can happily use tablets for browsing and casual usage. The high performance required for some businesses will demand either high end PC's or MAC's, with the majority of businesses opting for PC's due to the level of performance they can get for their investment.
I realise that Linux is a possibility still but it is a training issue, the average 100-10,000 people company don't have the training budget to re-educate people on using Linux instead of Windows. Obviously I realise there are companies (especially IT and outsourcing firms) who have expertise in house who would not let that phase them, but the majority just don't.
This was an interesting article and made me think, so thanks.
Well, Microsoft certainly won't agree with you.
By the way, that same "performance" article was made against PC's in the early days - the green screen terminals had access to the mainframe power - pc's were just "toys".
Really I didn't know that, but I guess than makes sense, I guess time will tell. Thanks for the stimulating article.
Yes - that's usually the case with things like this. Have you ever read "The Innovators Dilemma" ? I'll add an Amazon link above.
No I haven't I'll take a look at it. Thanks
It's a very interesting book and Microsoft is very aware of that, also.
Pretty much what I said above:
Another interesting view: http://www.webpronews.com/does-windows-have-one-fo
Couple of thoughts:
1. There are several that stated that Linux may not be ready because it is so technical to administrate. I don't know too many people who administrate windows machines anymore as everything is prepackaged. Canonical is close with Ubuntu now (although I think Unity and gnome 3 have the same Desktop/mobile UI misguidance as the metro interface language) as far a prepackaging software. I don't think that argument will last much longer.
2. Pcunix - you mentioned Clay C's book "innovator's...", I agree. There is nothing disruptive that Microsoft has brought. There is also nothing sustaining here either. It is Google and Apple that have been disruptive (their timing? perfect). Non-consumption with smart phones. Low market disruption with Google apps, etc. From an innovation standpoint, they are in trouble.
Ayup, and I don't think that Win 8 Consumer Preview is helping them..
Your points are utterly "wrong".
1. You say that developers will hate it because it uses HTML and Javascript - The truth? Metro applications can be programmed in C#, VB, and C++. Go away.
2. You say that keyboard-lovers will hate this - I'm a keyboard-user, and love using Windows 8 with it
Go away, your arguments are invalid.
Your inability to understand what I said here doesn't change the facts.
Try actually reading before making up nonsense rebuttals to things I never said.
Generally, I think if you want an idea where the technology is leading, then look at what the young kids are doing.
Though in this case, it's not just the kids. I'm seeing iPads, Kindles and Nooks all over our over-55 community.
... and these will be relatively short term in the market compared to the kids. Age 17-30 are the trend setters.
Very interesting article. Thank you, and I think you are right. Microsoft has been on "autopilot" for a long time now and I think this is how it is starting to show.
In recent articles I hear that game developers are not happy with Windows 8 at all. In fact, Gabe Newell slammed the operating system.
Wow..I use a tablet for sales and occasional field research/communications. I use a desktop for design, productivity and as a data center. I can access and run my pc through my tablet but there is no way in heck I can throw my desktop out and work on one. I also won't store all of my work on some corporate cloud that I have to rely on access to and trust with my security--not to mention eventually they'll want to charge me for these "conveniences".
Fair to say MS needs into the tablet market...idiotic to say other computers are dinosaurs and "everyone" is going to tablets.
Some of us do more than Facebook and web script apps on our machines.
MS is nuts to tout this as "the next great". If they had a tablet to tout it on--sure. But as the product for which they'll abandon their other products? they're nuts.
People sniffed at PC's too, saying that there was no way these would ever be more than silly toys..
No matter what, I am still looking forward to the release of this new software. Can't wait to try to full version.
redwards01 6 months ago
I believe, quite subtly, that Windows 8 is a terrible desktop OS. The points you bring up are very true, and I would also like to use W8 on a tablet.
Running it on my 2011 MBP with Virtual Box